Choosing and Predicting 2021 Oscar Winners

Who will win? Who am I rooting for?

Apr 23, 2021

Who will win? Who am I rooting for?

This article needs little to no introduction as this is probably not the only one of these you will read leading up to Sunday. I am looking forward to this year’s Oscars because not only was I able to see so many of the nominees, many people did — they were more widely available than ever before as many of them are available to stream.

I excluded categories in which I felt like I had no skin in the game, or where I did not see a majority of the nominees (typically 3 of the 5). A few exceptions are below.

The nominee in italics is my choice, bold is my prediction, and an asterisk* means I did not see the film.

Best Picture

The Father

Judas and the Black Messiah

Mank

Minari

Nomadland

Promising Young Woman

Sound of Metal

The Trial of the Chicago 7

I think Judas and the Black Messiah is the best film on this list, but judging by the 10 nominations (the most of this season) and the fact that it idolized classic Hollywood, I think Academy voters will give this one to Mank. I do think Judas and Nomadland are in contention here. You can see my ranking of all eight films here.

Best Director

Searchlight Pictures and Focus Features.

Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round

Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman

David Fincher, Mank

Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

Chloé Zhao, Nomadland

I think voters will find Nomadland’s pseudo-documentary style attractive and trendy. It clearly has its limitations and Zhao worked within those excellently. However, my choice is writer/director Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman. I hopes she walks away with a trophy on Sunday, and I find Best Screenplay unlikely. Her work on this debut feature is wonderful.

Best Actor

Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal

Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Anthony Hopkins, The Father

Gary Oldman, Mank

Steven Yeun, Minari

It definitely looks like there was some category switcharoo to get the two Judas actors into the Supporting category so they could give Chadwick Boseman this award posthumously. That’s fine and arguably deserved, however my choice here is Sir Anthony Hopkins. Hopkins has been acting for 60+ years and it has all led to this. He’s already done Lear, but this is his Lear.

Best Actress

Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday*

Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman

Frances McDormand, Nomadland

Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

I would be surprised if awards darling Viola Davis lost (she is excellent and favored, a deadly combo), but my pick is Carey Mulligan. Wow! On a resume that includes knockout performance after knockout performance, she really outdoes herself here. Her performance will stay with you.

Best Supporting Actor

Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

Leslie Odom, Jr, One Night in Miami

Paul Raci, Sound of Metal

LaKeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah

I will be interested to see if Kaluuya and Stanfield split the votes, but Kaluuya is truly transformative here and probably the most deserving of this accolade.

As for the previously mentioned category switcharoo, if Kaluuya and Stanfield are both supporting actors — who are they supporting?

Best Supporting Actress

Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy*

Olivia Colman, The Father

Amanda Seyfried, Mank

Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari

This one is probably a runaway. Colman has been both an awards and audience favorite for awhile and if Hopkins can’t take it home, I’m rooting for Colman to represent The Father.

Best Original Screenplay

Judas and the Black Messiah

Minari

Promising Young Woman

Sound of Metal

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Aaron Sorkin writes fantastic screenplays. We all know this. And his script for The Trial of the Chicago 7 is par for the course. He’s my pick here, but I’m not really sure who will end up taking it. I don’t think Minari will land anywhere else, so I’m representing (and maybe voters will too) them here.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

The Father

Nomadland

One Night in Miami

The White Tiger*

Probably the category I feel the least confident in predicting. This could go anywhere — probably not The White Tiger, but yes, I do think Borat Subsequent Moviefilm has a chance.

Best Animated Feature

Onward*

Over the Moon*

A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon*

Soul

Wolfwalkers*

I only got a chance to checkout Soul, but it seems like the clear favorite here. Oscar voters have long admitted they couldn’t care less about this category, so this seems like the safest and most likely choice.

Best Production Design

The Father

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Mank

News of the World

Tenet

The Production Design work of Peter Francis and Set Decoration of Cathy Featherstone for The Father are deceptively important to this film. As the film smoothly transitions from apartment to apartment, room to room without you picking up on it until they want you to, the amount of planning required here was probably unreal. Once again, I’m predicting Mank for the classic Hollywood aesthetic, but my choice is The Father.

Best Cinematography

Judas and the Black Messiah

Mank

News of the World

Nomadland

The Trial of the Chicago 7

I have no idea why Mank was shot on digital instead of film, but I don’t think the Academy will be bothered. I could see voters schmoozed by the black & white and the gritty noir-esque look. My pick here is Judas and the Black Messiah. There’s some really great camera work there.

Best Film Editing

The Father

Nomadland

Promising Young Woman

Sound of Metal

The Trial of the Chicago 7

I would like to echo what I said for Production Design for The Father in regards to the editing. Excellent work here and I think it will win.

I sound like I liked The Father a lot more than I did.

Best Make-Up & Hairstyling

Emma*

Hillbilly Elegy*

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Mank

Pinocchio*

The hair and make-up work for Ma Rainey is excellent. The sweat! The hair! The wardrobe! I’m breaking my rule for minimum amount of watches because I feel strongly about this.

Best Sound

Greyhound*

Mank

News of the World

Soul

Sound of Metal

This is a no-brainer. The tuning in-and-out sound design of Sound of Metal is the clear winner here. It does a lot of the anxiety-provoking work when the screenplay can’t. Not only an easy choice, an easy choice amongst these nominees.

Best Original Score

Da 5 Bloods

Mank

Minari

News of the World

Soul

Multiple nominees Reznor and Ross (also Mank) collaborate with jazz bandleader Jon Batiste to give Soul a fresh, flavorful, funky, score. It is both my pick and my prediction.

Best Documentary Feature

Collective

Crip Camp

The Mole Agent*

My Octopus Teacher*

Time

My favorite of the three documentaries I was able to catch was the Obama- produced Crip Camp that centers on Camp Jened, a summer camp for disabled people that produced many disability rights advocates. However, I believe that Time, about a woman navigating the American unjustice system, will take the trophy.

Best International Feature

Denmark, Another Round

Hong Kong, Better Days*

Romania, Collective

Tunisia, The Man Who Sold His Skin*

Bosnia and Herzegovina, Quo Vadis, Aida?*

I was only able to see two of the nominees in this category, but I prioritized Another Round as it is the clear favorite. It is a very strong picture that probably needs a couple of watches to fully settle in.