2024 Oscar Picks and Predictions

It's your final chance to place your bets.

This post is best viewed on our website.

I don't typically write these kinds of pieces. I'm often bored by awards races, frustrated by how much they dominate the pop culture conversation, and uninterested in the whole circus. I don't know why we speak of the Academy as a hive mind, I don't know why we speak of performances in terms of golden recognition, I don't know why we criticize film on awards viability. It's all an overwhelming problem in this industry.

But I saw all these movies this year, and I'm nothing if not both competitive and full of opinions, so I've decided to be a part of the problem and use this piece to hold myself accountable. There’s no “I told you so” if I didn’t tell you so.

I excluded categories in which I felt like I had no skin in the game, or where I did not see a majority of the nominees (typically 3 of the 5). A few exceptions are below.

The nominee in italics is my choice, bold is my prediction, and an asterisk* means I did not see the film.

Best Picture

American Fiction 

Anatomy of a Fall

Barbie

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

Poor Things 

The Zone of Interest

My favorite movie of the year, Sean Durkin's The Iron Claw, received a whopping zero Academy Award nominations, so you can see why I don't really care about the Oscars, (I say this, but I wrote the piece anyway.) A big part of that is A24's complete inability to campaign for awards, but that's a conversation for another time.

I then slide down my list of 2023 movies to the two spot, where The Holdovers lives. It's sweet, it's full of heart, it's a great picture I will revisit often.

It will not win. Oppenheimer will win easily. It is also a great picture, but for the record, Oppenheimer was 6th on my list, behind Dream Scenario, Past Lives, and Poor Things. 

Best Directing

Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall

Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

If the Greta Gerwig "snub" controversy taught us anything (or maybe just reminded us of an old adage), it's that "the movie didn't direct itself." Oppenheimer is the best film on this list (and will win many statues) and it's Christopher Nolan's creation from start to finish. I'm torn on Nolan, loving some while being baffled by others, but this is undebatable. 

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Colman Domingo, Rustin

Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

For different reasons, I would be happy if any of these fellas won this award. I'm particular for Paul Giamatti, but they're all great. It's largely become a two-man race with him and Cillian Murphy with Cillian pulling away, but I could be swayed to put both Domingo and Wright above him on a ranked list. All deserving.

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Annette Bening, Nyad

Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall

Carey Mulligan, Maestro

Emma Stone, Poor Things

I will use this opportunity to say...I didn't see what most others saw in Killers of the Flower Moon. As a result, I don't think I saw what the film gives Lily Gladstone. If anything, I wanted more of them in the movie! To put it very crudely, I thought it was too much of the dopey white guys! I wanted more Osage and Native perspective. If Gladstone wins, which I believe they will, it will be deserved and historic. I just don't get the movie around them (and I liked the book!)

If you wanted to see Margot Robbie nominated here, you might be rooting for Emma Stone. Barbie walked on her tiptoes so Bella Baxter could furiously jump.

Nyad? Really?

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction

Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Robert Downey Jr. will win this award, full stop.

But I want to shout out Sterling K. Brown's performance in American Fiction. If this wasn't so cut and dry, he could be a dark horse candidate. No performance on this list made me feel the way that Brown's did, especially when he delivers that gut-punching departing line. 

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

America Ferrera, Barbie

Jodie Foster, Nyad

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Da'Vine Joy Randolph has put together quite a trophy case (and it's all so deserved) based on her delivery of the line“You can't even dream a whole dream, can you?"

Wow. 

Nyad? Really?

Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

American Fiction, written for the screen by Cord Jefferson

Barbie, written by Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach

Oppenheimer, written for the screen by Christopher Nolan

Poor Things, screenplay by Tony McNamara

The Zone of Interest, written by Jonathan Glazer

See above.

In this case, Nolan turned a 700-page biography into a MOVIE. That's amazing enough. The fact that the movie is cinematic and not just a textbook is a miracle. The fact that it's told narratively the way that it is, thematically, technically. The fact that it was a summer blockbuster!

That's why he should and will win.

Wouldn’t be surprised to see a Gerwig and Baumbach win, however.

Best Writing (Original Screenplay)

Anatomy of a Fall , screenplay by Justine Triet and Arthur Harari

The Holdovers, written by David Hemingson

Maestro, written by Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer

May December, screenplay by Samy Burch; Story by Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik

Past Lives, written by Celine Song

Celine Song's debut feature is my favorite screenplay of the year. Her playwright roots shine through in all of the best ways with her dialogue, her characters, and her themes. She wrote the best play of the year and turned it into one of the best movies of the year! Plays are cool, too!

Will this be the Oscar (we all think) Bradley Cooper so desperately wants? Maybe if we give him one, he'll stop all this.

Best Cinematography

El Conde*, Edward Lachman

Killers of the Flower Moon, Rodrigo Prieto

Maestro, Matthew Libatique

Oppenheimer, Hoyte van Hoytema

Poor Things, Robbie Ryan

In my mind, Robbie Ryan's work on Poor Things is unmatched this year. I don't have a particular reason that I think it will be Matthew Libatique for Maestro, I just feel it. It's the Mank feeling. 

Best International Feature Film

Io Capitano*

Perfect Days*

Society of the Snow*

The Teacher’s Lounge*

The Zone of Interest

Normally, I would never discuss a category where I've only seen one of the five movies, like this year's nominees for Best Animated Feature, for example.

But we all know The Zone of Interest is going to win, so I want my correct prediction on the record. I also want to take this opportunity to say that I do not see what almost everybody else sees in it. I hate to be the dissenting voice (I'm happy to let Richard Brody take the brunt of this one), but I've always known that Nazis were bad...

Best Production Design

Barbie (Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer)

Killers of the Flower Moon (Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis)

Napoleon (Production Design: Arthur Max; Set Decoration: Elli Griff)

Oppenheimer (Production Design: Ruth De Jong; Set Decoration: Claire Kaufman)

Poor Things (Production Design: James Price and Shona Heath; Set Decoration: Zsuzsa Mihalek)

I think that Barbie could and should sweep the design categories this year.

Best Costume Design

Barbie, Jacqueline Durran

Killers of the Flower Moon, Jacqueline West

Napoleon, Janty Yates and Dave Crossman

Oppenheimer, Ellen Mirojnick

Poor Things, Holly Waddington

See above.

For some analysis on the great costuming in Poor Things (my runner-up pick and my "I was actually thinking it would win" pick when it wins), read the excellent piece Kino Stitches: Celebrating Other-Worldly Film Costume Designs from the talented

Via Marsh

.

Best Original Song

“The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot*, music and lyric by Diane Warren

“I’m Just Ken” from Barbie, music and lyric by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt

“It Never Went Away” from American Symphony, music and lyric by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson

“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon, music and lyric by Scott George

“What Was I Made For?” from Barbie, music and lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell

I wish the entire Barbie soundtrack could win. It's perfect. With that said, however, I know we all love "I'm Just Ken," but isn't it like the fifth-best song from the movie? 

Best Original Score

American Fiction, Laura Karpman

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, John Williams

Killers of the Flower Moon, Robbie Robertson

Oppenheimer, Ludwig Göransson

Poor Things, Jerskin Fendrix

I'm putting this at the end of this piece to remind you that Oppenheimer will run away with these things on Sunday. It's well deserved against tough competition in an excellent movie year.